Hard 15 vs Dealer 7: Hit or Stand?
With a hard 15 (10-5) against a dealer 7, basic strategy says to hit. This is the mathematically correct play over the long run — it's exactly what the Blackjack Trainer grades your decisions against.
A dealer showing 7 busts about 26% of the time. That's a strong up-card, so the dealer will usually make a made hand. You have to improve your own total rather than hope the dealer breaks.
This is a stiff total, so busting is a real risk — but against this up-card, hitting still loses less often than standing and hoping.
What the dealer does with a 7
Assuming the dealer stands on all 17s, here is how a 7 up-card finishes over the long run:
| Dealer final | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 37% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 26% |
Hard 15 vs every dealer up-card
H = Hit · S = Stand · D = Double · Sp = Split · Su = Surrender. Tap any card to see that matchup.
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