Pair of Aces vs Dealer 10: Split or Not?
With a pair of aces against a dealer 10, basic strategy says to split. This is the mathematically correct play over the long run — it's exactly what the Blackjack Trainer grades your decisions against.
A dealer showing 10 busts about 21% of the time. That's a strong up-card, so the dealer will usually make a made hand. You have to improve your own total rather than hope the dealer breaks.
Splitting turns one marginal hand into two fresh starts against the dealer's 10. Only split when the table allows it and your bankroll can cover the second bet.
What the dealer does with a 10
Assuming the dealer stands on all 17s, here is how a 10 up-card finishes over the long run:
| Dealer final | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance | 11% | 11% | 11% | 34% | 11% | 21% |
Pair of Aces vs every dealer up-card
H = Hit · S = Stand · D = Double · Sp = Split · Su = Surrender. Tap any card to see that matchup.
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